Despite global headwinds, commerce and industry minister Piyush Goyal believes India’s exports will reach a new record this year, aided by free trade agreements (FTAs) and investments flowing into key sectors. In an interview with The Times of India, Goyal said India is reviewing older FTAs with ASEAN and Japan while remaining cautious in trade engagements with China.
Goyal said that over the past 11 years under the Modi government, India has managed to deal with uncertainty and volatility effectively. Total exports hit an all-time high of $825 billion in 2024–25, growing over 6% and maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% over the last decade. Electronics grew at a 20% CAGR, and engineering and pharmaceuticals also performed well. From 2019–20 to 2024–25, goods exports posted a CAGR of 6.9%, despite the Covid years. Between 2019 and 2023, commercial services exports registered a CAGR of 12%.
Goyal said that in the coming year, goods exports, especially non-petroleum products, may grow 5–6%, while services may grow 9–10%. “If we can achieve that, we are looking at crossing $870 billion in the current year, despite the global problems,” he said. “Our focus is more and more on value-added and labour-intensive goods and services exports.”
FTAs, he said, have helped reshape India’s trade relationships. The country has signed FTAs with the UAE, Australia, EFTA and the UK. “With the UAE, services exports have almost doubled in the last four-five years. In Australia, it has nearly tripled. On the goods side too, we have grown very well. In Australia’s case at 25%, we have crossed $8 billion, while we were tottering at $3 billion earlier,” he said.
But Goyal pointed out that FTAs signed during the UPA years have not yielded similar gains. “Services export to Japan is slowing down. We did not get very wide coverage in areas of interest for India. It’s a sad situation and I hope that our efforts for a review will bear fruit. Japan has not agreed to it and a South Korea review is underway,” he said. Goyal said the Modi government signs FTAs only after consulting stakeholders and prioritising national interest.
Asked whether opting out of RCEP was the right move, Goyal said that before the decision, the government held 200 consultations with stakeholders and only three of them supported joining. “PM Modi showed decisive leadership and sensitivities for our fishermen, farmers, industry and entrepreneurs. He recognised that it was nothing but FTA between India and China because we had agreements with the others,” he said. He added that India has since signed an ECTA with Australia and could soon finalise an agreement with New Zealand. “Just this week at a meeting with exporters, the issue came up and not one of them suggested that we should join,” he said.
On the ASEAN FTA, Goyal said India could do much better. “I am hopeful that both Korea and ASEAN will recognise the asymmetries in the FTAs signed 15 years ago and will make them more contemporary, fair, balanced and equitable,” he said.
On whether Chinese goods are being routed through ASEAN countries, Goyal pointed to the US-Vietnam agreement, which focuses on transshipment. “Every day we get cases of sub-standard goods coming in, predatory pricing being deployed for exports and to kill Indian industry,” he said. The government, he said, is working to strengthen Make in India, support domestic industry when it is impacted by predatory pricing, and focus on Quality Control Orders.
Asked about the US’s China+1 strategy, Goyal said it is taking a two-pronged approach—acknowledging that complete decoupling is not possible while simultaneously strengthening supply chains. This, he said, presents opportunities for India. “India is a much sought after destination for investments. There are collaborations for technology. In the maritime sector, India is recognised as a shipbuilding destination and govt is also coming up with measures to support it,” he said.
He called semiconductors a success story under the Modi government and said domestic value addition has increased significantly in PLI-supported sectors.
Asked about India’s trade deficit with China, which is nearing $100 billion, Goyal said that during the 10 years of UPA rule, the trade deficit with China grew nearly 25 times, but between 2014–15 and 2023–24 it has only expanded 1.75 times. “We have managed to bring some reasonable controls. Electrical equipment, machinery, organic chemicals and plastics are our major imports. Between 2019–20 and 2023–24, there has been an increase in import of these items from China, but there is also a corresponding increase in exports, showing that several items imported from China are raw material, inputs or capital goods used for making finished products in India,” he said.
Goyal said there are several non-tariff barriers in China, such as language issues and procedural delays. “Many industries just don’t buy from India even when our products are competitive. Getting more market access is an area in which we are working with China through our embassy,” he said.
He acknowledged that China has at times restricted exports of items such as rare earth magnets, fertiliser, tunnel boring machines, and recently recalled engineers. Despite this, there are demands from Indian industry to lift some of the checks on Chinese investments, visas and apps. Goyal said if China is willing to engage on fair trade terms, India will be open to talks for a more equitable system. “Time will tell,” he said when asked whether the conditions are right to lift some of the checks.
On the outlook for the first quarter, Goyal said that signs of a slowdown exist, but rural demand has improved significantly. “You may see a jump in growth in the second half of the year. I see no difficulty in closing the year with RBI’s 6.5% growth which will make us the fastest growing economy,” he said.
On concerns about weak private capex, Goyal said it varies by sector. He mentioned steel, with planned investments of ₹20 lakh crore over 10 years, cement, auto parts and sanitaryware as areas seeing heavy investment. He also mentioned growing demand for white goods driven by tax cuts and higher incomes, and recent GST reduction talks. “Auto sector is growing rapidly and our efforts in electronics are showing results. Some of the investment going into GCCs may not be fully captured,” he said.
On increasing foreign direct investment, Goyal said outward investment is helping India build an asset base abroad. “In the long run this will be our strength,” he said.
Regarding upcoming changes in SEZ rules, Goyal said there are suggestions to help SEZ units improve capacity use and reduce reliance on FTAs. The government is working with relevant departments to finalise changes by year-end.
On quality control orders (QCOs), Goyal said they are aligned with the Prime Minister’s vision of “zero defect-zero effect” manufacturing. “Technical regulations have been strengthened to promote a strong quality ecosystem in India, enhance product safety for consumers, prevent the import of substandard goods, protect the environment and attract investment. It acts as a nudge to produce quality products in India,” he said.
On industrial corridors and 100 new industrial parks, he said that in Dholera, Shendra-Bidkin, Greater Noida and Vikram Udyogpuri, over 4,200 acres have been allotted and 76% of developed land is under committed use. Dholera is emerging as a semiconductor hub, while Shendra-Bidkin in Maharashtra is growing into an automotive and EV centre.
Of 12 new projects approved in August last year, tenders have been floated and ground work is expected to start by October or November. On the 100 industrial parks, the blueprint is nearly ready. These will be developed through special purpose vehicles involving the Centre, states, and in some cases private players. A single window system for approvals will be introduced and plug-and-play infrastructure maintained.
(with ToI inputs)
Goyal said that over the past 11 years under the Modi government, India has managed to deal with uncertainty and volatility effectively. Total exports hit an all-time high of $825 billion in 2024–25, growing over 6% and maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.8% over the last decade. Electronics grew at a 20% CAGR, and engineering and pharmaceuticals also performed well. From 2019–20 to 2024–25, goods exports posted a CAGR of 6.9%, despite the Covid years. Between 2019 and 2023, commercial services exports registered a CAGR of 12%.
Goyal said that in the coming year, goods exports, especially non-petroleum products, may grow 5–6%, while services may grow 9–10%. “If we can achieve that, we are looking at crossing $870 billion in the current year, despite the global problems,” he said. “Our focus is more and more on value-added and labour-intensive goods and services exports.”
FTAs, he said, have helped reshape India’s trade relationships. The country has signed FTAs with the UAE, Australia, EFTA and the UK. “With the UAE, services exports have almost doubled in the last four-five years. In Australia, it has nearly tripled. On the goods side too, we have grown very well. In Australia’s case at 25%, we have crossed $8 billion, while we were tottering at $3 billion earlier,” he said.
But Goyal pointed out that FTAs signed during the UPA years have not yielded similar gains. “Services export to Japan is slowing down. We did not get very wide coverage in areas of interest for India. It’s a sad situation and I hope that our efforts for a review will bear fruit. Japan has not agreed to it and a South Korea review is underway,” he said. Goyal said the Modi government signs FTAs only after consulting stakeholders and prioritising national interest.
Asked whether opting out of RCEP was the right move, Goyal said that before the decision, the government held 200 consultations with stakeholders and only three of them supported joining. “PM Modi showed decisive leadership and sensitivities for our fishermen, farmers, industry and entrepreneurs. He recognised that it was nothing but FTA between India and China because we had agreements with the others,” he said. He added that India has since signed an ECTA with Australia and could soon finalise an agreement with New Zealand. “Just this week at a meeting with exporters, the issue came up and not one of them suggested that we should join,” he said.
On the ASEAN FTA, Goyal said India could do much better. “I am hopeful that both Korea and ASEAN will recognise the asymmetries in the FTAs signed 15 years ago and will make them more contemporary, fair, balanced and equitable,” he said.
On whether Chinese goods are being routed through ASEAN countries, Goyal pointed to the US-Vietnam agreement, which focuses on transshipment. “Every day we get cases of sub-standard goods coming in, predatory pricing being deployed for exports and to kill Indian industry,” he said. The government, he said, is working to strengthen Make in India, support domestic industry when it is impacted by predatory pricing, and focus on Quality Control Orders.
Asked about the US’s China+1 strategy, Goyal said it is taking a two-pronged approach—acknowledging that complete decoupling is not possible while simultaneously strengthening supply chains. This, he said, presents opportunities for India. “India is a much sought after destination for investments. There are collaborations for technology. In the maritime sector, India is recognised as a shipbuilding destination and govt is also coming up with measures to support it,” he said.
He called semiconductors a success story under the Modi government and said domestic value addition has increased significantly in PLI-supported sectors.
Asked about India’s trade deficit with China, which is nearing $100 billion, Goyal said that during the 10 years of UPA rule, the trade deficit with China grew nearly 25 times, but between 2014–15 and 2023–24 it has only expanded 1.75 times. “We have managed to bring some reasonable controls. Electrical equipment, machinery, organic chemicals and plastics are our major imports. Between 2019–20 and 2023–24, there has been an increase in import of these items from China, but there is also a corresponding increase in exports, showing that several items imported from China are raw material, inputs or capital goods used for making finished products in India,” he said.
Goyal said there are several non-tariff barriers in China, such as language issues and procedural delays. “Many industries just don’t buy from India even when our products are competitive. Getting more market access is an area in which we are working with China through our embassy,” he said.
He acknowledged that China has at times restricted exports of items such as rare earth magnets, fertiliser, tunnel boring machines, and recently recalled engineers. Despite this, there are demands from Indian industry to lift some of the checks on Chinese investments, visas and apps. Goyal said if China is willing to engage on fair trade terms, India will be open to talks for a more equitable system. “Time will tell,” he said when asked whether the conditions are right to lift some of the checks.
On the outlook for the first quarter, Goyal said that signs of a slowdown exist, but rural demand has improved significantly. “You may see a jump in growth in the second half of the year. I see no difficulty in closing the year with RBI’s 6.5% growth which will make us the fastest growing economy,” he said.
On concerns about weak private capex, Goyal said it varies by sector. He mentioned steel, with planned investments of ₹20 lakh crore over 10 years, cement, auto parts and sanitaryware as areas seeing heavy investment. He also mentioned growing demand for white goods driven by tax cuts and higher incomes, and recent GST reduction talks. “Auto sector is growing rapidly and our efforts in electronics are showing results. Some of the investment going into GCCs may not be fully captured,” he said.
On increasing foreign direct investment, Goyal said outward investment is helping India build an asset base abroad. “In the long run this will be our strength,” he said.
Regarding upcoming changes in SEZ rules, Goyal said there are suggestions to help SEZ units improve capacity use and reduce reliance on FTAs. The government is working with relevant departments to finalise changes by year-end.
On quality control orders (QCOs), Goyal said they are aligned with the Prime Minister’s vision of “zero defect-zero effect” manufacturing. “Technical regulations have been strengthened to promote a strong quality ecosystem in India, enhance product safety for consumers, prevent the import of substandard goods, protect the environment and attract investment. It acts as a nudge to produce quality products in India,” he said.
On industrial corridors and 100 new industrial parks, he said that in Dholera, Shendra-Bidkin, Greater Noida and Vikram Udyogpuri, over 4,200 acres have been allotted and 76% of developed land is under committed use. Dholera is emerging as a semiconductor hub, while Shendra-Bidkin in Maharashtra is growing into an automotive and EV centre.
Of 12 new projects approved in August last year, tenders have been floated and ground work is expected to start by October or November. On the 100 industrial parks, the blueprint is nearly ready. These will be developed through special purpose vehicles involving the Centre, states, and in some cases private players. A single window system for approvals will be introduced and plug-and-play infrastructure maintained.
(with ToI inputs)
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